Trump Assassination Theories

Four American Presidents have been assassinated since the country's founding. Abraham Lincoln was assassinated in 1865. In 1881, President James Garfield was assassinated. President William McKinley's assassination followed in 1901.

John F. Kennedy's 1963 assassination was the first captured on film. Political assassinations were rampant in the 1960s, when civil rights leaders Martin Luther King Jr. (1968) and Malcolm X (1965) were assassinated as was JFK's brother Robert F. Kennedy Sr. (1968).

Assassination attempts against the President are common. Government agencies like the Secret Service and FBI work extensively to thwart attempts to kill each U.S. President. They are often able to do so during the planning phase, without a spectacle.

Since theories about the assassination attempts on President Trump focus on failed assassination attempts, it's worth noting that in 1981, John Hinckly Jr. shot President Ronald Reagan. The shooting was broadcast to millions of Americans on broadcast news. President Reagan was injured but survived the shooting, just as Trump survived the Butler shooting in 2024.

Donald Trump was a former president campaigning to return to the White House in July 2024 when a bullet grazed his ear at a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. The shooter, Thomas Crooks, was able to climb onto the roof of a nearby building. This was one of the peculiarities of the event that led to questions. How could someone successfully perch atop a building while law enforcement surveilled? Further, how could a single shooter, only 20 years old and reportedly a high school rifle club reject, come so close to assassinating the then-former President?

Trump's immediate reaction to the assassination further fueled speculation about the Butler incident. After the shots rang out, Trump raised his fist and exclaimed, "Fight! Fight! Fight!" before the Secret Service whisked him away. Crooks' bullets killed two civilians in the audience. Some conspiracies about the Butler shooting focus on Trump's abnormal reaction to the gunshots. Perhaps this was an effort to garner support for Trump or an effort to portray him as a "strong man" best equipped to serve as President? Conservsely, Pro-Trump conspirators claim Crooks was a patsy for more powerful anti-Trump forces.

Political experts consider the Butler event as an important part of Trump's successful 2024 campaign. In some polls, Vice President Kamala Harris was ahead of Trump prior to Butler. Trump's fortunes improved after Butler, culminating with his electoral victory in November.

Part of Trump's 2024 success can be attributed to young male voters. Trump received 39% of the votes cast by men ages 18-29. In 2016, only 28% of the 18-29 year-old male demographic voted for him (Pew). This is worth noting because of the way many Americans viewed Trump's reaction to the Butler shooting as signs of fortitude and resilience.

Cole Thomas Allen's April 2026 assassination attempt at the White House Correspondents Dinner in Washington, DC was also met with similar doubt and online speculation. Allen, a 31 year-old Californian who frequently posted about Trump on social media, traveled by train to DC, where the annual White House Correspondents' dinner was set to take place on April 6, 2026 at the Washington Hilton Hotel.

Allen made a reservation at the hotel restaurant, which is a floor below the room where the Correspondents' Dinner was held. Reports state that Allen ran through the event security checkpoint carrying a long gun. He was shot by Secret Service before he was able to take aim at the President. Allen is currently in federal prison awaiting trial.

The Correspondents' Dinner is not broadcast live and Allen wasn't able to get as physically close to Trump as Crooks was in Butler, so this attempt is less infamous than Butler. But it resurfaced the Butler claims and added to speculation about Trump. While America has an unfortunate history of Presidential assassinations, the public has not before seen two separate near assassinations of the same President.

Political polarization is surely a factor in the rise of political violence such as the Butler and Correspodents' Dinner events. That same political polarization--the way in which conservative and liberal Americans hold more divergent beliefs and often harbor deeply negative opinions of the opposing perspective--has created conspiracy theories about Trump assassinations that differ according to subscribers' political ideals.

Conservative, right-leaning assassination theorists see the attemps as part of a Deep State or shadowy network attempting to kill Trump. This notion counters official documents that portray Crooks and Allen as mentally disturbed solo operators. Liberal, left-leaning assassination theorists see the attempts as false flag events designed to garner support for Trump, first as a candidate and later for his policies. Trump often frames the Correspodents' Dinner as evidence that he needs funding for his proposed Presidential Ballroom, for example.

Polls highlight that millions of Americans believe the Trump assassination attempts were fake. Once again, social media propels these ideas. Additionally, Trump has himself peddled conspiracies. In 2011, he popularized the claim that President Barack Obama was born in Kenya. He also once claimed that the father of former political rival Ted Cruz was involved in the 1963 JFK Assassination. For further context, consider that Americans are witnessing a new era of political violence, with the assassinations of Charlie Kirk and Minnesota State House Speaker Melissa Hortman both occurring in 2025 between the Butler and Correspondents' Dinner events.

To consider the Trump assassination attempts, it's worth first reviewing official records of the events. It's also worth considering conspiracists' opposing viewpoints while taking account of your own views. Do you identify as a Trump supporter or opponent? If so, this will inform your initial judgment of liberal versus conservative conspiracies. Allegations of "staging" are common among people who oppose Trump, whereas allegations of "Deep State" or "shadow networks" are common among Trump supporters. Is there credible evidence to suggest either camp is correct? Or does research suggest that the official accounts of these events are accurate?

Sources:

Zadrozny, Brandy, "How the 2nd Shooter Conspiracy Theory Spread After the Trump Assassination Attempt" 23 July 2024

This page was written and edited by Jay Trucker

August 2026

Contact

Jay Trucker, Ph.D.

Email

jtrucker@ccbcmd.edu